Breaking Down The Baltimore County Council Races

Likely RepublicanLeaning RepublicanToss UpLeaning DemocratLikely Democrat
Kach 3-RBevins 6-DQuirk 1-DOpen 2-D (Patoka-D)
Marks 5-RJones 4-D (unopposed)
Crandell 7-R

Here is my breakdown of the County Council races in Baltimore County. I don’t believe there is too much excitement except for one race (District 6). With the Democrats currently holding a 4 to 3 majority, that one race is a key factor in the future of the county. Here are how the races look in my opinion

 

Likely Republican

Councilmen David Marks (R-5) and Todd Crandell (R-7) easily won their primaries with over 80 percent of the vote. While their numbers won’t be as high in the General Election against their Democratic opponents, they should get at least 60 to maybe 70 percent of the vote. Although Councilman Wade Kach (R-3) had a narrow primary win, he should have a bigger General Election win than Marks and Crandell since District 3 is more favorable to Republicans.

Likely Democrat

Julian Jones (D-4) is unopposed in the General Election so he was considered re-elected after his primary win.

Izzy Patoka (D-2) is going after Vicky Almond’s old seat and she is in a good shape against Republican Mike Lee. I met Lee and he seems like a good candidate but has a tough road ahead. If Lee can gain some traction, I might be able to put this into the “Leaning Democrat” column in the next few months.

Leaning Democrat

I think Councilman Tom Quirk is okay right now in July as he seeks re-election against Republican challenge Al Nalley in a rematch from 2014. Quirk has an advantage because he was scheduled to face Republican Pete Melcavage, but Melcavage dropped out of the race and Nalley was named as a last-minute replacement. On the other hand, there is going to be a Republican wave in southwestern Baltimore County with Gov. Larry Hogan and a strong Republican ticket in State Legislative District 12 race. That could help Nalley. Also, Nalley has name ID as he was able to pick up 39 percent of the vote in 2014 against Quirk. This race could slip into “Toss-Up” before November.

 

Toss-Up

Obviously, Councilwoman Cathy Bevins (D-6) is going to have a battle with Republican challenger Ryan Nawrocki in a rematch from 2010. Bevins is in a strong Republican district and Nawrocki must get all the Deb Sullivan, Erik Lofstad, Allen Robertson and Glen Geelhaar supporters on his side for November. If the other six council races go as expected, this race will decide the balance of the county council.

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