As I mentioned earlier in the week Maryland Matters [MM] had their assessment of the most competitive House of Delegate races two weeks ago. According to MM, there is going to be a blue wave across Maryland in the Delegate races, despite Gov. Larry Hogan’s poll numbers. I wrote on Monday where I agreed with their breakdown and today I will give my opinion where I respectfully disagree. Tomorrow, I will point out competitive races that they missed.
My Disagreement With Maryland Matters
These races would possibly be in play if Gov. Larry Hogan was in trouble and a real blue wave was heading towards Maryland, but most of these races were more than razor thin victories for the GOP in 2014 and I expect those GOP wins to increase more in 2018.
Yes I know that GOP Del. Paul D. Corderman was not elected but was appointed to his position about former Del. Brett Wilson became a Circuit Court judge. I am also aware that Democratic challenger Peter E. Perini Sr. has only less than $1,500 compared to Corderman. MM also points out that Donald Trump only won the district by 500 votes, but there are many districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 that will be won by Larry Hogan and other Republicans. Gubernatorial elections have a much more moderate electorate compared to Presidential races. Wilson won by 9 percentage points in 2014 and Corderman should win by more in Washington County.
This is ironic because I thought that the Republicans had a shot at taking a seat or two in Frederick County District 3A with Democrats Delegates Carol Krimm and Karen Lewis Young. I will admit that the demographics might have changes too much for the GOP to win in 3A but now MM thinks 3B is in play with GOP incumbent Del. William Folden. I disagree.
Folden won in 2014 by 1,700 votes and he should do better since Republican Craig Giangrande has an opportunity to defeat District 3 Democratic Senator Ron Young or least run a competitive race. If there is a chance for an incumbent delegate to lose in District 3, it is one and/or two Democrats in 3A and not the lone Republican in 3B.
Since I ran in this race in the GOP primary in northeast Baltimore County, I do not want to comment too much on the race. I like all six gentlemen in this race on both sides of the aisle, but obviously my politics align with the Republican team of the Joes – Cluster, Norman and Boteler and I support all three.
Del. Bob Flanagan is looking to get re-elected in a moderate district in Howard County. His Democratic challenger and former Councilwoman Courtney Watson have nearly the same amount of money.
Flanagan won his race by 1,500 votes in 2014. It is true that Watson is a formidable opponent, but Flanagan should be fine.
MM believes that Republican Del. Deb Rey could be in trouble after she narrowly defeated then-Del. John C. Bohanan in 2014 by 76 votes, but Rey is now established in her Southern Maryland district where Gov. Hogan is expected to do well. Now that she is an incumbent in a conservative district, Rey should have a comfortable win.
Next post, I will explain the House races that could flip from one party to another. You guessed it, there are many blue seats that could go red that Maryland Matters missed.