Final Breakdown of MD State Senate Races

Here are my final breakdowns for the 47 state senate races. I do not consider myself an expert at all. These are my guestimations on some of these battleground races. These assessments are based on internal polling, online articles, online activity, campaign finance reports and 2014 Election Data. I will hit on some predictions and will probably miss on a few races too.

In my humble opinion, I do not believe any of the 14 current GOP controlled seats are in danger of turning blue on Tuesday. As my table indicates, I think three current Democratic seats will go red. There are four “toss up” races that are currently under Democratic control that could go either way. Also, I feel that there are races “leaning Democrat” that will probably remain in Democratic control, but the Republicans could steal any or all of those seats if Gov. Larry Hogan has a huge night in those Districts.

Solid RLikely RLeaning RToss UpLeaning DLikely DSolid D
Edwards 1-RSalling 6-ROpen 30-D (George -R)Young 3-DFeldman 15-DKelly-10-DZirkin 11-D
Serafini 2-RBates 9-ROpen 42-D (West-R)Open 12-D (Lam-D)Miller 27-DGuzzone 13-DLee 16-D
Hough 4-RWaugh 29-R (Bailey-R)Klausmeier 8-D (Miele-R)Open 32-DMiddleton 28-D (Ellis-D)Zucker 14-DOpen 18-D (Waldstreicher-D)
Ready 5-RCassilly 34-RMathias 38-DKegan 17-DSmith 20-D
Jennings 7-RHershey 36-ROpen 19-D (Kramer-D)Rosapepe 21-D
Simonaire 31-REckardt 37-RFerguson 46-DPinsky 22-D
Reilly 33-RPeters 23-D
Open 35-R (Gallion-R)Benson 24-D
Open 25-D (Griffith-D)
Open 26-D (Patterson-D)
King 39-D
Robinson 40-D (Hayes)
Open 41-D (Carter-D)
Conway 43-D (Washington)
Nathan-Pulliam 44-D
McFadden 45-D (McCray)
Open 47-D (Augustine-D)

Leaning Republican
District 8-Chrisitian Miele
I know Christian Miele very well. He is a humble guy who won’t like me writing this, but I am moving his race against Sen. Kathy Klausmeier from “Toss Up” to “Leaning Republican”. Internal polls show him up and he has worked his tail off. As I mentioned, Miele was unopposed in the primary, but he ran as if he had an opponent. Miele was down in an early poll by 16 points, but the poll results showed Miele was only down by the margin of error when voters were told that Miele was endorsed by Gov. Hogan. To his credit, Miele plastered signs all over District 8 that included his photo with Hogan. Miele is a great campaigner and that is why he will win this race.

District 30- Ron George
Back in the summer, Former Del. Ron George was favored to take Sen. John Astle’s seat and poll numbers have confirmed that George should win this race.

District 42 – Chris West
At this point, I think it is fair to say that Del. Chris West is great position to take Jim Brochin’s old seat in the senate in Northern Baltimore County.

Toss Up
District 3- Craig Giangrande
I thought that GOP Challenger Craig Giangrande would be well ahead over Democratic Sen. Ron Young at this point of the race, but even GOP internal polling still had Young winning. District 3 has changed a lot of its demographics over the past 10 years which favors Young. The GOP polling says Giangrande “has narrowed the gap” within the margin of error last month.

District 12-Joe Hooe
Joe Hooe’s race for a vacant seat in District 12 has gone from “Leaning Democrat” to “Toss Up” and might be even “Leaning Republican”. I will keep it at “Toss Up” since there is no current GOP representation in District 12, but this eastern Howard County/western Baltimore County district is very winnable for Hooe. He has been able to raise money and spent about $20,000 to promote his campaign. His Democratic opponent Del. Clearance Law is part of the Democratic machine but is not as strong as retiring Sen. Ed Kasemeyer.

District 32-John Grasso
Anne Arundel Councilman John Grasso is challenging Del. Pam Beidle for the open senate in District 32 as Democratic Sen. James Ed DeGrange did not run for re-election. I am moving this race into a “toss-up”. I am not aware of an internal poll for this race, but a House of Delegates internal poll showed that the two GOP House candidates Patty Ewing and Tim Walters were in position to take two of the open House seats in District 32. Hogan will win this district too, so I believe Grasso must be neck and neck with Beidle.

District 38-Mary Beth Carroza
I am surprised this race is still close. I thought Carroza would have pulled away in this race. President Donald Trump cruised to victory in this southeast Eastern Shore district. Dick Haire reported on MD GOP radio a few weeks ago, that Democratic Sen. Jim Mathias was now tied with Carroza. When I was down in Ocean City during the spring, I was disappointed that Carroza did not have her signs plastered all over the area. Christian Miele, who is a Delegate running against a similar race against an incumbent Democratic Senator, not only had his signs up in March, he had signs with a picture of Gov. Hogan.
One disadvantage that Carroza faces is that she is in a single member District 38C. Miele is part of a three-member District 8, so his constituents includes all of Sen. Kathy Klausmeier district. Carroza had to introduce herself to District 38 A and B. Let’s hope she pulls this out because this is a must-win for the “Drive for Five”

Leaning Democrat
District 15-David Wilson
There are a lot of districts where Gov. Hogan is expected to win but they are still Democratic strongholds. If a candidate or two can just get their name out there and hold onto Hogan’s coattails, they might be able to take advantage of a Hogan wave. District 15 is a moderate district in Montgomery County where Hogan is expected to do well. Democratic Sen. Brian Feldman has over $138,000 in the bank and has spent over $68,000 over the summer. Feldman’s Republican challenger David Wilson has spent over $9,000 on media and mailers. It is not as much as Feldman but that $9,000 is money well spent. I don’t know if Wilson can win in Montgomery County, but he is putting himself in position if there is a strong Hogan wave in District 15.

District 27-Jeese Peed
After reading Peed’s finance report, I am ready to put his race against Senate President Mike Miller in the “Leaning Democrat” from “Solid Democrat”. Peed had less than $500 back in August. Since then he received over $3,000 in contributions from citizens all over Maryland, almost $5,000 from the Prince George’s County Republican Central Committee and it appears he loaned himself over $10,000 so he was able to spend near $15,000 on direct mail, printing and media. Polls showed Hogan winning this district by 30 points over Ben Jealous. If Hogan has coat tails, who knows? Miller has unlimited cash, but this race could turn into District 6 where a GOP Senate candidate underdog by the name of Johnny Ray Salling upset the heavy funded John Olszewski, Jr. in 2014.

District 28-Bill Dotson
I do not know too much after this Southern Maryland race. This is the race where Democratic Sen. Mac Middleton was upset in the primary by fellow Democrat Arthur Ellis and the GOP scrambled around to nominate Bill Dotson. His latest campaign finance report showed Dotson raising over $100,000 since Aug. 22 and spend over $77,000 in that same time. He showed why he was nominated by the GOP Central Committee. Ellis has also spent some money as he has over $112,000 cash on hand. Middleton beat his Republican opponent almost 2 to 1 in 2014 so I don’t know how many votes are on the table for Dotson.

Likely Democrat
District 14- Robert Drozd
There are many “Likely Democrat” races but I highlighted this race because I thought GOP candidate Robert Drozd had a chance to upset Sen. Craig Zucker in this moderate District 14 in Montgomery County, but he has only spent less than $500. I believe Hogan will do well in District 14 and I think that a GOP candidate has a shot to possibly take a delegate seat. But I’m moving this race out of “Leaning Democrat” from August to “Likely Democrat”. Republican candidate Frank Howard spent over $25,000 in the final weeks of the campaign and had a respectable 57.5 to 42.4 percent loss to Karen S. Montgomery in the 2014 District 14 race. There is an opportunity for Drozd, but I worry that he won’t be able to get his name out there with the lack of funding. If everything goes right for the GOP, this could be the race that decides if the Republicans can make up a majority in the state Senate. It is crazy that there is even an outside possibly of a Republican majority.

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