Breaking Down House of Delegates Races

Well here it goes. I’m not sure about my accuracy but here is my analysis of the 141 House of Delegate races. As I mentioned during my Senate breakdowns, I do not consider myself an expert at all. These predictions are based on internal polling, online articles, online activity, campaign finance reports and 2014 Election Data. Again, I believe I will be accurate on some of these House races and will probably look silly on other races.

Toss Up= Either candidate could win between 1 to 6 points.
Leaning= The candidate should win by 7 to 15 points, but there is also a chance that the candidate could be in danger of losing.
Likely= The candidate should win by at least 15 points.
Solid= The candidate is unopposed or should win by at least 30 points.

Solid RLikely RLeaning RToss UpLeaning DLikely DSolid D
Beitzel-1a-RCorderman-2B-ROpen 8-RBromwell 8-DEbersole 12-DKrimm 3a-DBrooks 10-D
Buckel-1b-RFolden-3B-RRey 29B-RFlanagan 9-RHill 12-DYoung 3a-DJalisi 10-D
McKay 1c-RGrammer 6-ROpen 30-ROpen 12-DLuedtke 14-DOpen 10-DJones 10-D
Parrott 2a-RLong 6-ROpen 42b-RJackson 27b-DQueen 14-DOpen 13-DStein 11-D
WIvell 2a-RMetzgar 6-ROpen 42b-RCarey 31a-DDumais 15-DOpen 16-DHettleman 11-D
Cilberti 4-RCluster 8-ROpen 32-DFraser-Hidalgo 15-DCardin 11-DAttebery 13-D
Open 4-RFisher 27c-ROpen 32-DQi 15-DHettleman 11-DPendergrass 13-D
Open 4-RMorgan 29a-RGlass 34a-RBusch 30a-ROpen 13-DKelly 16-D
Krebs 5-RClark 29c-RLisanti 34a-DChang 32-DOpen 16-DKorman 16-D
Rose 5-RHoward 30b-RLafferty 42a-DOpen 18-DBarve 17-D
Shoemaker 5-RMalone 33-ROpen 19-DGilchrist 17-D
Szeliga 7-RMcComas 33-ROpen 28-DOpen 17-D
Impallaria 7-RSaab 33b-RSample-Hughes 37a-DCarr 18-D
Open 7-RArentz 36-ROpen 18-D
Kittleman 9a-RGhrist 36-RCullison 19-D
Warren 9a-RJacobs 36-ROpen 19-D
Hornerberger 35a-RAdams 3bB-RMoon 20-D
Cassilly 35b-RMautz 37b-RWilkins 20-D
Reilly 35b-ROtto 38a-ROpen 20-D
Anderton-38b-RBarnes 21-D
Open 38-c-RPena-Melnyk 21-D
Reznik 39-ROpen 21-D
Open 39-RGaines 22-D
Open 39-RHealey 22-D
Washington 22-D
Valentino-Smith 23a-D
Holmes 23b-D
Open 23b-D
Barron 24-D
Smith 24-D
Open 24-D
Barnes 25-D
Davis 25-D
Open 25-D
Valderrama 26-D
Walker 26-D
Open 26-D
Proctor 27a-D
Patterson 28-D
Wilson 28-D
Conway 40-D
Mosby 40-D
Open 40-D
Rosenberg 41-D
Open 41-D
Open 41-D
Anderson 43-D
McIntosh 43-D
Open 43-D
Haynes 44A-D
Sydnor 44B-D
Young 44B-D
Brach 45-D
Glen 45-D
Open 45-D
Clippinger 46-D
Lewis 46-D
Lierman 46-D
Fennell 47-D
Open 47-D
Open 47-D

Toss-Up Races
District 8
Republican Joe Cluster and Democrat Eric Bromwell are looking to get re-elected and Christian Miele’s GOP seat is open. Cluster easily gets re-elected. One of other GOP Joes (Boteler or Norman) will keep Miele’s seat for second and the other Joe could take Bromwell’s toss-up seat in northeast Baltimore County

District 9B
Republican Del. Bob Flanagan is looking to get re-elected in a moderate district in Howard County. His Democratic challenger is former Councilwoman Courtney Watson. This is one of two GOP seats in “toss-up”.

District 12
Since Del. Clarence Lam is seeking the vacant state senate seat and his seat is open, Republican challenger Melanie Harris and Democratic newcomer Jessica Feldmark are in a battle for that “toss-up” seat. However; Democratic Delegates Eric Ebersole and Terri Hill are seeking re-election in this eastern Howard County and western Baltimore County split district, but they are no shoe-in for victory. With Hogan’s popularity, Senate Candidate Joe Hooe doing well in his race and with Ebersole and Hill’s liberal voting record, Republicans Bob Cockey and Michael Russell could help Hooe and Harris sweep the district like District 6 in 2014 that went from four Democratic seats to four Republicans in one night. I predicted a few weeks ago that Harris will win at least one seat for the GOP.
District 27B
Democrat Del. Michael Jackson could be in trouble in District 27B. He won his race by five percentage points in 2014 and is being challenged by a strong candidate in Michael Thomas.

District 31A
District 31A Democrat Del. Ned Carey is in a tight race and Republican Brooks Bennett has been a great campaigner and has been working hard for over a year and a half. This is a conservative district in northern Anne Arundel County where Carey won by only 523 votes in 2014.

District 32
This northwest Anne Arundel County district has Delegates with liberal voting records that do not go too well with moderate voters.
One Democratic delegate Pam Beidle is going after a vacant senate seat and Del. Mark Chang is seeking re-election as delegate. Del. Ted Sophocleus sadly passed away last year. This leaves two open seats in the House. Republican challengers Mark Bailey, Patty Ewing and Tim Walters have all been endorsed by Hogan and Ewing and Walters are favored to get the open seats and Bailey could defeat Chang for a sweep.

District 34A
This is another two-seat split district with Republican Glen Glass and Democrat Mary Ann Lisanti. Both delegates represent southeast Harford County. I haven’t seen a poll in that district, but I would predict that this is a moderate district that probably has a lot of Hogan Democrats. This district could go blue with Lisanti and her Democratic running mate Steve Johnson, might go red with Glass and his GOP running mate JD Russell or could remain a split district with Glass and Lisanti. That is why I put both Lisanti and Glass in “Toss-up”

Montgomery County
District 14
There is a possibility for the GOP in District 14 and District 15 in Montgomery County and I will go out on a limb and predict that a Republican will represent Montgomery County in Annapolis this January. I am not sure, but I think Gov. Hogan won both districts and the GOP slate ran tough races in 2014. District 14 and 15 may not go red but they could still be races to watch. Republican Patricia Fenati ran in 2014 and has around $15,000 in the bank and Republican Michael A. Ostroff ran in 2014 but has little cash. There is an outside chance that Fenati could steal the third seat. Democrat Eric Luedtke finished behind fellow Democrat Pam Queen for third in the primary so I’m not sure who’s seat she would take if she finished third. Del. Anne Kaiser is safe unless things really get crazy.

District 15
District 15 is the best chance for my prediction. Republicans Laurie Halverson, Harvey Jacobs and Marc King have all raised money and are trying to catch a Hogan wave. Democratic Del. Kathleen Dumais easily placed first in the Democratic primary but fellow incumbent David Fraser-Hidalgo finished third behind Democratic newcomer Lily Qi. Could that mean there is a weakness and perhaps Halverson, Jacobs and/or King can steal a seat or two? I know nothing about Montgomery County expect for the raw election numbers from 2014 and the June primary. However; I am still predicting of the eight seats in District 14 & 15 (six delegates and two senate) the GOP will take one seat.

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