Well here it goes. I’m not sure about my accuracy but here is my analysis of the 141 House of Delegate races. As I mentioned during my Senate breakdowns, I do not consider myself an expert at all. These predictions are based on internal polling, online articles, online activity, campaign finance reports and 2014 Election Data. Again, I believe I will be accurate on some of these House races and will probably look silly on other races.
Toss Up= Either candidate could win between 1 to 6 points.
Leaning= The candidate should win by 7 to 15 points, but there is also a chance that the candidate could be in danger of losing.
Likely= The candidate should win by at least 15 points.
Solid= The candidate is unopposed or should win by at least 30 points.
Solid R Likely R Leaning R Toss Up Leaning D Likely D Solid D
Beitzel-1a-R Corderman-2B-R Open 8-R Bromwell 8-D Ebersole 12-D Krimm 3a-D Brooks 10-D
Buckel-1b-R Folden-3B-R Rey 29B-R Flanagan 9-R Hill 12-D Young 3a-D Jalisi 10-D
McKay 1c-R Grammer 6-R Open 30-R Open 12-D Luedtke 14-D Open 10-D Jones 10-D
Parrott 2a-R Long 6-R Open 42b-R Jackson 27b-D Queen 14-D Open 13-D Stein 11-D
WIvell 2a-R Metzgar 6-R Open 42b-R Carey 31a-D Dumais 15-D Open 16-D Hettleman 11-D
Cilberti 4-R Cluster 8-R Open 32-D Fraser-Hidalgo 15-D Cardin 11-D Attebery 13-D
Open 4-R Fisher 27c-R Open 32-D Qi 15-D Hettleman 11-D Pendergrass 13-D
Open 4-R Morgan 29a-R Glass 34a-R Busch 30a-R Open 13-D Kelly 16-D
Krebs 5-R Clark 29c-R Lisanti 34a-D Chang 32-D Open 16-D Korman 16-D
Rose 5-R Howard 30b-R Lafferty 42a-D Open 18-D Barve 17-D
Shoemaker 5-R Malone 33-R Open 19-D Gilchrist 17-D
Szeliga 7-R McComas 33-R Open 28-D Open 17-D
Impallaria 7-R Saab 33b-R Sample-Hughes 37a-D Carr 18-D
Open 7-R Arentz 36-R Open 18-D
Kittleman 9a-R Ghrist 36-R Cullison 19-D
Warren 9a-R Jacobs 36-R Open 19-D
Hornerberger 35a-R Adams 3bB-R Moon 20-D
Cassilly 35b-R Mautz 37b-R Wilkins 20-D
Reilly 35b-R Otto 38a-R Open 20-D
Anderton-38b-R Barnes 21-D
Open 38-c-R Pena-Melnyk 21-D
Reznik 39-R Open 21-D
Open 39-R Gaines 22-D
Open 39-R Healey 22-D
Republican Joe Cluster and Democrat Eric Bromwell are looking to get re-elected and Christian Miele’s GOP seat is open. Cluster easily gets re-elected. One of other GOP Joes (Boteler or Norman) will keep Miele’s seat for second and the other Joe could take Bromwell’s toss-up seat in northeast Baltimore County
Republican Del. Bob Flanagan is looking to get re-elected in a moderate district in Howard County. His Democratic challenger is former Councilwoman Courtney Watson. This is one of two GOP seats in “toss-up”.
Since Del. Clarence Lam is seeking the vacant state senate seat and his seat is open, Republican challenger Melanie Harris and Democratic newcomer Jessica Feldmark are in a battle for that “toss-up” seat. However; Democratic Delegates Eric Ebersole and Terri Hill are seeking re-election in this eastern Howard County and western Baltimore County split district, but they are no shoe-in for victory. With Hogan’s popularity, Senate Candidate Joe Hooe doing well in his race and with Ebersole and Hill’s liberal voting record, Republicans Bob Cockey and Michael Russell could help Hooe and Harris sweep the district like District 6 in 2014 that went from four Democratic seats to four Republicans in one night. I predicted a few weeks ago that Harris will win at least one seat for the GOP.
Democrat Del. Michael Jackson could be in trouble in District 27B. He won his race by five percentage points in 2014 and is being challenged by a strong candidate in Michael Thomas.
District 31A Democrat Del. Ned Carey is in a tight race and Republican Brooks Bennett has been a great campaigner and has been working hard for over a year and a half. This is a conservative district in northern Anne Arundel County where Carey won by only 523 votes in 2014.
This northwest Anne Arundel County district has Delegates with liberal voting records that do not go too well with moderate voters.
One Democratic delegate Pam Beidle is going after a vacant senate seat and Del. Mark Chang is seeking re-election as delegate. Del. Ted Sophocleus sadly passed away last year. This leaves two open seats in the House. Republican challengers Mark Bailey, Patty Ewing and Tim Walters have all been endorsed by Hogan and Ewing and Walters are favored to get the open seats and Bailey could defeat Chang for a sweep.
This is another two-seat split district with Republican Glen Glass and Democrat Mary Ann Lisanti. Both delegates represent southeast Harford County. I haven’t seen a poll in that district, but I would predict that this is a moderate district that probably has a lot of Hogan Democrats. This district could go blue with Lisanti and her Democratic running mate Steve Johnson, might go red with Glass and his GOP running mate JD Russell or could remain a split district with Glass and Lisanti. That is why I put both Lisanti and Glass in “Toss-up”
There is a possibility for the GOP in District 14 and District 15 in Montgomery County and I will go out on a limb and predict that a Republican will represent Montgomery County in Annapolis this January. I am not sure, but I think Gov. Hogan won both districts and the GOP slate ran tough races in 2014. District 14 and 15 may not go red but they could still be races to watch. Republican Patricia Fenati ran in 2014 and has around $15,000 in the bank and Republican Michael A. Ostroff ran in 2014 but has little cash. There is an outside chance that Fenati could steal the third seat. Democrat Eric Luedtke finished behind fellow Democrat Pam Queen for third in the primary so I’m not sure who’s seat she would take if she finished third. Del. Anne Kaiser is safe unless things really get crazy.
District 15 is the best chance for my prediction. Republicans Laurie Halverson, Harvey Jacobs and Marc King have all raised money and are trying to catch a Hogan wave. Democratic Del. Kathleen Dumais easily placed first in the Democratic primary but fellow incumbent David Fraser-Hidalgo finished third behind Democratic newcomer Lily Qi. Could that mean there is a weakness and perhaps Halverson, Jacobs and/or King can steal a seat or two? I know nothing about Montgomery County expect for the raw election numbers from 2014 and the June primary. However; I am still predicting of the eight seats in District 14 & 15 (six delegates and two senate) the GOP will take one seat.