Breaking Down The Baltimore County Council Races

Likely RepublicanLeaning RepublicanToss UpLeaning DemocratLikely Democrat
Kach 3-RBevins 6-DQuirk 1-DOpen 2-D (Patoka-D)
Marks 5-RJones 4-D (unopposed)
Crandell 7-R

Here is my breakdown of the County Council races in Baltimore County. I don’t believe there is too much excitement except for one race (District 6). With the Democrats currently holding a 4 to 3 majority, that one race is a key factor in the future of the county. Here are how the races look in my opinion

 

Likely Republican

Councilmen David Marks (R-5) and Todd Crandell (R-7) easily won their primaries with over 80 percent of the vote. While their numbers won’t be as high in the General Election against their Democratic opponents, they should get at least 60 to maybe 70 percent of the vote. Although Councilman Wade Kach (R-3) had a narrow primary win, he should have a bigger General Election win than Marks and Crandell since District 3 is more favorable to Republicans.

Likely Democrat

Julian Jones (D-4) is unopposed in the General Election so he was considered re-elected after his primary win.

Izzy Patoka (D-2) is going after Vicky Almond’s old seat and she is in a good shape against Republican Mike Lee. I met Lee and he seems like a good candidate but has a tough road ahead. If Lee can gain some traction, I might be able to put this into the “Leaning Democrat” column in the next few months.

Leaning Democrat

I think Councilman Tom Quirk is okay right now in July as he seeks re-election against Republican challenge Al Nalley in a rematch from 2014. Quirk has an advantage because he was scheduled to face Republican Pete Melcavage, but Melcavage dropped out of the race and Nalley was named as a last-minute replacement. On the other hand, there is going to be a Republican wave in southwestern Baltimore County with Gov. Larry Hogan and a strong Republican ticket in State Legislative District 12 race. That could help Nalley. Also, Nalley has name ID as he was able to pick up 39 percent of the vote in 2014 against Quirk. This race could slip into “Toss-Up” before November.

 

Toss-Up

Obviously, Councilwoman Cathy Bevins (D-6) is going to have a battle with Republican challenger Ryan Nawrocki in a rematch from 2010. Bevins is in a strong Republican district and Nawrocki must get all the Deb Sullivan, Erik Lofstad, Allen Robertson and Glen Geelhaar supporters on his side for November. If the other six council races go as expected, this race will decide the balance of the county council.

My Campaign Is Over; Time to Help GOP Candidates

My campaign for the House of Delegates in District 8 came to an end on June 26. I want to thank all 1,244 people that voted for myself in the primary, but it was well short of my goal.

Congratulations to Joe Cluster, Joe Boteler and Joe Norman on securing the top three spots and hopefully you three gentlemen will be able to finally sweep the district (along with Christian Miele in the Senate). Again I ran in this race to make sure the Republican Party had three strong candidates for the House of Delegates, whether it was myself or three other candidates.

Now that my race is over, I’m going to help promote Republican candidates here in Baltimore County. We all know we have a great opportunity to re-elect Gov. Larry Hogan and pick up some seats in the House and Senate, but we have opportunities in Baltimore County.

Al Redmer, Jr. has an excellent chance to become our next Baltimore County Executive. Also, Ryan Nawrocki has a very strong shot to become our next county councilman in District 6, which would give Republicans a chance to control the county 4 to 3 with a Republican County Executive.

I will have more on these races in the next few weeks and months.