GOP Will Get One Seat in District 12 & Could Sweep All Four

Melanie Harris polled in third place in an early poll. Her numbers should now be higher. I guarantee she will win a seat.
Mark this down. I am guaranteeing that a Republican will pick up at least one seat in District 12. I’m not just stating the GOP “could” win in the all-Democratic District 12, but one candidate will win a seat. Her name is Melanie Harris. She has run a strong campaign, finished first in the Republican primary and will be the top Republican vote getter in the General Election. Some of my GOP friends do not believe District 12 is in play. I strongly disagree. Now I will explain why Harris will win at least one of the seats and could be joined by other Republicans in that district.

District 12 is based two-thirds in eastern Howard County and one- third in western Baltimore County (Catonsville and Arbutus) Democratic Sen. Ed Kasemeyer is retiring, and Democratic Del. Clarence Lam is going after his vacant seat. Eric Ebersol and Terri Hill are the other two incumbent delegates seeking reelection. Democratic newcomer Jessica Feldmark is looking to replace Lam.

On the Republican side, Joe Hooe is going after the vacant state Senate seat and Harris, Bob Cockey and Michael Russell are going for the three delegate seats.

In 2014, a different GOP slate won in the Baltimore County portion of the district but lost in Howard County. This Republican slate has focused hard on the Howard County portion.

This District has a chance to become this year’s District 6 (Dundalk and Essex) where four blue seats can turn red in one night. District 12 is a blue-collar district with a lot of old school Democrats that are not as liberal as its representatives.

Unlike some Democrats in battleground races, District 12 Democrats are not tying themselves to Gov. Larry Hogan. Heck, Ebersol was at the rally when Ben Jealous dropped the F bomb. They also don’t hide from their liberal voting agenda, which includes voting for gun bans, the Home Act and to make Maryland a sanctuary state.

When an internal poll came out in the summer, Ebersol and Hill were head and shoulders above everyone else with their name ID, but Harris was beating Feldmark at that time. So worst case scenario, Harris is getting a seat in third place behind Ebersol and Hill. The question is if Cockey and Russell can catch Ebersol and Hill?

It was a pleasant surprise to see Hooe doing well in a recent poll. Now I don’t know if the internal poll that showed Hooe up by seven over Lam is accurate but if he is tied or even down by two or three points to Lam, the Hogan factor should swing Hooe’s way.

I’m not sure if the GOP team in District 12 is getting two, three or four seats but they are at least getting one. I will guarantee that.

My Assessment of Maryland Matters’ Assessment of Delegate Races -Part 3

Maryland Matters [MM] had their assessments of the most competitive House of Delegate races two weeks ago. I wrote previous blogs where I agreed with some their assessment and then wrote a blog where I explained why I disagreed with their analysis on other races which I do not believe will be competitive.
Today I am going to explain competitive races that MM is underestimating.

District 12
Democratic Delegates Eric Ebersole and Terri Hill are seeking re-election in this eastern Howard County and western Baltimore County split district.
Del. Clarence Lam is seeking the vacant state senate seat so Democrat Jessica Feldmark is going after Lam’s old seat. But the Republican ticket in District 12 is strong. I heard from an inside source that Republican challenger Melanie Harris is beating Feldmark for the final delegate seat in a poll. Republicans Bob Cockey and Michael Russell (who worked as my intern) also believe they can gain traction in this moderate district.
The poll showed that Ebersole and Hill have name ID, but both Democrats have a horrible liberal voting record for a moderate district. Three different GOP House candidates won the Baltimore County portion of the district in 2014 but lost in Howard County, which is about 2/3 of the district. If the GOP perform better in Howard County, I predict they will pick up at least one seat and maybe more.

District 32

This northwest Anne Arundel County district is very similar to District 32 where Gov. Larry Hogan won it in 2014 (and is expected to win it again in 2018) and some of the liberal voting records of the delegates might not go too well with moderate voters.
One Democratic delegate Pam Beidle is going after a vacant senate seat and Del. Mark Chang is seeking re-election as delegate. Del. Ted Sophocleus sadly passed away last year. This leaves two open seats in the House. Republican challengers Mark Bailey, Patty Ewing and Tim Walters have all been endorsed by Hogan and I would not be shocked if the GOP picks up a seat or two in 32.

Other Districts
There is a possibility for the GOP in District 14 and District 15 in Montgomery County. I am not sure, but I think Gov. Hogan won both districts and the GOP slate ran tough races in 2014. District 14 and 15 may not go red but they could still be races to watch. Democratic Del. Michael Jackson in District 27B won his race by five percentage points in 2014 and is being challenged by a strong candidate in Michael Thomas. There is even a chance that Del. Steve Lafferty in District 42A could be in trouble as he is facing GOP candidate Stephen McIntire. Hogan also won District 42A in 2014.

As I mentioned in an earlier blog about the senate races, Hogan popularity helps all Republicans. If the governor continues to do well across the state, it will only help candidates like Thomas, McIntire and the District 14 & 15 GOP slates.