New Goucher Poll Has Hogan Up Big; Wolf and Campbell Down Big

A new poll shows Gov. Hogan up by 22 points
A new Goucher poll shows Gov. Larry Hogan with a 22-point lead over Democratic challenger Ben Jealous. The Republican governor has 54 percent compared to Jealous’ 34 percent. Green party nominee Ian Schlakman and Libertarian candidate Shawn Quinn both have one percent of the vote. Only nine percent are undecided with less than seven weeks until Election Day. This poll result is not a shocker with Hogan’s popularity and with Jealous’ inexperience and blunders.

The poll also reveals that Democratic Attorney Gen. Brian Frosh has a commanding 58 to 26 percent lead over Republican Craig Wolf, with 12 percent undecided. I am very disappointed to hear that result. With Wolf running a strong campaign, having the endorsement of Hogan and the unpopularity of Frosh; I thought Wolf would be in striking distance of Frosh. If Wolf was only down 10 to 15 points, then he could make a run in the final weeks. I am afraid that 32 points might be too insurmountable for Wolf.

In addition to the Governor and Attorney General races, the poll was conducted for the U.S. Senate race here in Maryland. Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin was shown with a 56 to 17 percent lead over Republican Tony Campbell. Independent candidate Neal Simon was listed with eight percent of the vote. There were 14 percent undecided and the Libertarian candidate Arvin Vohra was recorded with one percent of the vote.

If you add up Campbell and Simon’s numbers it would show Cardin winning 56 to 25, which is almost identical to Frosh beating Wolf 58 to 26. So the GOP’s fear of Simon cutting into Campbell’s votes are true, but this splitting of the vote would be more significant if Cardin had numbers around 36, Campbell had 27 and Simon had 18 percent.

The biggest takeaway from the Senate and Attorney General races is that Hogan’s coattails are not transferring over in these races. Especially for Craig Wolf who has been spending and raising money. I am hoping that GOP candidates in the state Senate and House of Delegate races have better luck benefiting from those Hogan coattails.

Thanks to Goucher College for conducting the poll. By the way, when will a Baltimore County Executive race poll be conducted?

Simon Provides Cardin With Another Third Party Candidate to Split GOP Vote

Unaffiliated candidate Neil Simon has entered the U.S. Senate race and will probably take votes away from GOP nominee Tony Campbell.
-photo courtesy of

When Sen. Ben Cardin ran for re-election in 2012, he faced multiple candidates in the General Election that year. That is common as there are usually Green Party, Libertarian and write-in candidates in the race but there was an unaffiliated candidate that year by the name of Rob Sobhani.

Dan Bongino was the Republican nominee and Sobhani took some of  Bongino’s votes as he received 16.5 percent and Bongino took around 26 percent. Cardin still got 56 percent of the vote that year but Republicans were still irked that Sobhani took votes away from Bongino.

For the first time in six years, Cardin is up for re-election. It also appears that a third-party candidate by the name of Neil Simon is this year’s Rob Sobhani.

Republican Senate nominee Tony Campbell is furious that Simon got on the ballot and I can’t blame Campbell. Simon went around the state and collected enough signatures to get on the ballot.

“It is interesting how every time Ben Cardin runs for re-election there is a wealthy Montgomery County “independent moderate” who decides to spend millions of dollars on a third party run to divide the anti-Cardin vote and ensure Cardin’s victory.” Campbell wrote on his Campbell4Maryland Facebook page.

Simon appears to be a serious candidate as campaign finance reports showed him with over $20,000  so far. Simon bought a local ad in my hometown paper the East County Times last week and his team called my house for internal polling. I’m sure he has bought ads in local newspapers throughout the state. He claims on his website that he is going to run TV ads.

According to his website, Simon does not take a real stance on any issues. Some of his principles include; putting country before party and using common sense to find common ground to solve problems. That sounds like every politician but he does not address any hot button issues on his website.

As a conservative, I want Ben Cardin to be defeated. If Neil Simon feels the same way and really wanted to give Cardin a serious battle, then why didn’t he enter the Republican primary to get a potential one-on-one contest with Cardin?

I am very angry as Simon is going to take votes away from Campbell too but Simon will not get enough votes to beat Cardin.

During the Simon phone call, I told his volunteer that I was voting for Tony Campbell and that a third-party can’t win and they really can’t win. All that a third-party candidate does is split the vote.

If Donald Trump has taught us anything (Libertarian Ron Paul tried before as a Republican and Green Party member Bernie Sanders tried as a Democrat) third-party candidates need to control one of the two major parties to have success in the General. I wish we had a three and maybe a four-party system but we do not.

So is Simon really trying to beat Cardin or is he trying to help Cardin by splitting the vote? By the way, whatever happened to Rob Sobhani?